The purpose of this page is to give a graphic representation of Cary's historical, current, and future population growth.
The table below shows the population increase of the Town from its incorporation in 1871 to 2020. The population at inception is given [p. 50] by Thomas M. Byrd in his and Jerry Miller's book, Around and About Cary [Raleigh: Daniels Industries; 1970. 2nd ed., Ann Arbor: Edwards Brothers, Inc.; 1994.]. The population totals from 1880 to 2020 are the United States Census Bureau's official counts for those years.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate column at far right shows the rate of growth from the decade listed above it. Thus, for example, the rate of growth per year from 2000 to 2010 was 3.34%. FWIW, the compound annual growth rate of the Town of Cary from inception to 2017 has been 4.92%.
| YEAR | CARY'S POPULATION |
ADDITIONAL PEOPLE |
PERCENT INCREASE |
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1871 | +/- 150 | Not applicable | Not applicable | Not applicable |
| 1880 | 371 | 221 | 147% | 10.59% |
| 1890 | 423 | 52 | 14% | 1.32% |
| 1900 | 333 | -90 | –21% | -2.36% |
| 1910 | 383 | 50 | 15% | 1.41% |
| 1920 | 645 | 262 | 68% | 5.35% |
| 1930 | 909 | 264 | 41% | 3.49% |
| 1940 | 1,141 | 232 | 26% | 2.30% |
| 1950 | 1,446 | 305 | 27% | 2.40% |
| 1960 | 3,356 | 1,910 | 132% | 8.78% |
| 1970 | 7,686 | 4,330 | 129% | 8.64% |
| 1980 | 21,763 | 14,077 | 183% | 10.97% |
| 1990 | 45,497 | 23,734 | 109% | 7.65% |
| 2000 | 97,411 | 51,914 | 114% | 7.91% |
| 2010 | 135,234 | 37,823 | 39% | 3.34% |
| 2020 | 174,721 | 39,487 | 29% | 2.59% |
The population increase of 2.59% each year for the last decade, stated another way, means that the Town's population increased by 10.8 people per day, every day, seven days per week, 52 weeks of each year.
At that rate of growth, Cary's population on Election Day will be 183,112.
The Cary Community Plan's guidelines for the town's development and infrastructure are based on an assumption that Cary's population will increase to a mere 193,000 in the year 2040. If this were correct, the Compound Annual Growth Rate from now to then would be 0.76%.
The Cary Community Plan states that the yearly growth rate "is expected to decline" [p. 82], but does not specify who it is that expects the growth rate to decline, by how much he or she expects it to decline, or for what reason or reasons the decline is expected.
The table below shows the Town of Cary's population based on estimates of (1) the Cary Community Plan, (2) the U.S. Census Bureau, and (3) the Town of Cary administration. Note that the Cary Community Plan's projections work toward its prediction of 193,000 in 2040. The increase from 159,769 in 2015 to 193,000 in 2040 yields a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.76%.
If we take the actual rate of population growth for the Town and project it forward [right column of chart below], we see that the Cary Community Plan's prediction of 193,000 in the year 2040 will be surpassed 16 years early – in 2024 – and by 2040 there will be 291,371 people in the Town.
| YEAR | Population per CARY COMMUNITY PLAN ( CAGR of 0.76%) |
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU OFFICIAL ESTIMATE (April 1) |
TOWN of CARY ESTIMATE (July 1) |
Population projection based on CAGR of 2.59% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Not applicable | 135,264 (official count) |
Not available | — |
| 2011 | Not applicable | Not available | Not available | — |
| 2012 | Not applicable | Not available | 142,257 | — |
| 2013 | Not applicable | Not available | 144,981 | — |
| 2014 | Not applicable | Not available | 149,854 | — |
| 2015 | 159,769 | 159,769 | 153,865 | — |
| 2016 | 160,983 | 162,320 | 157,259 | — |
| 2017 | 162,207 | 165,904 | 160,390 | — |
| 2018 | 163,439 | 168,160 | 163,763 | — |
| 2019 | 164,682 | 170,282 | 167,316 | — |
| 2020 | 165,933 | 174,721 (official count) |
170,287 | 174,721 |
| 2021 | 167,194 | 176,987 | 179,000+/- | 179,246 |
| 2022 | 168,465 | 183,889 | ||
| 2023 | 169,745 | 188,651 | ||
| 2024 | 171,035 | 193,538 | ||
| 2025 | 172,335 | 198,550 | ||
| 2026 | 173,645 | 203,693 | ||
| 2027 | 174,965 | 208,968 | ||
| 2028 | 176,294 | 214,381 | ||
| 2029 | 177,634 | 219,933 | ||
| 2030 | 178,984 | (official count) | 225,629 | |
| 2031 | 180,345 | 231,473 | ||
| 2032 | 181,715 | 237,468 | ||
| 2033 | 183,096 | 243,619 | ||
| 2034 | 184,488 | 249,928 | ||
| 2035 | 185,890 | 256,401 | ||
| 2036 | 187,303 | 263,042 | ||
| 2037 | 188,726 | 269,855 | ||
| 2038 | 190,160 | 276,844 | ||
| 2039 | 191,606 | 284,015 | ||
| 2040 | 193,000 | (official count) | 291,371 |
If the demonstrated rate of growth continues, the Town of Cary's population will hit 193,000 people in 2024 – two years from now and 16 years ahead of the time on which the Cary Community Plan's assumptions are made.
If the demonstrated rate of growth continues, the Town of Cary's population will be 291,371 in 2040.
| JURISDICTION | 2010 POPULATION |
2020 POPULATION |
ADDITIONAL PEOPLE |
PERCENT INCREASE |
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (2010 to 2020) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh | 403,892 | 467,665 | 63,773 | 15.79% | 1.48% |
| Durham | 228,354 | 287,865 | 59,511 | 26.0% | 2.33% |
| Cary | 135,234 | 174,721 | 39,487 | 29.2% | 2.59% |
| Apex | 37,476 | 58,780 | 21,304 | 56.8% | 4.60% |
| Holly Springs | 24,661 | 40,050 | 15,389 | 62.4% | 4.97% |
| Knightdale | 11,401 | 18,761 | 7,360 | 64.6% | 5.11% |
| Morrisville | 18,576 | 31,670 | 13,094 | 70.5% | 5.48% |
| Clayton | 16,116 | 28,843 | 12,727 | 79% | 5.99% |
| Fuquay-Varina | 17,937 | 34,152 | 16,215 | 90.4% | 6.65% |
| JURISDICTION | 2010 POPULATION |
2020 POPULATION |
ADDITIONAL PEOPLE |
PERCENT INCREASE |
COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | 900,993 | 1,132,250 | 231,257 | 23.3% | 2.31% |
| Rank | City | 2020 Population | Area (sq. mi.) | People / sq. mi. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raleigh | 467,665 | 147.64 | 3,191 |
| 2 | Cary | 174,721 | 59.94 | 2,914 |
| 3 | Charlotte | 874,579 | 309.25 | 2,828 |
| 4 | Durham | 283,506 | 112.64 | 2,516 |
| 5 | Greensboro | 299,035 | 134.3 | 2,227 |
| 6 | Wilmington | 115,451 | 52.97 | 2,180 |
| 7 | High Point | 117,624 | 57.51 | 2,045 |
| 8 | Asheville | 93,350 | 45.95 | 2,031 |
| 9 | Winston-Salem | 249,545 | 133.82 | 1,864 |
| 10 | Fayetteville | 213,475 | 150.1 | 1,422 |